Commercial aviation has suffered its deadliest year since 2018 after the Jeju Air Co. disaster in South Korea and the December 25 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane.Onboard passenger plane fatalities this year jumped to 318 with the two recent crashes, data compiled by Cirium shows. That’s by far the highest death toll since more than 500 people died in 2018, a year marked by the first of two Boeing Co. 737 Max crashes.

This year started and ended with tragedies in Japan and South Korea during attempted landings, among the most dangerous phases of flight. Fatal aviation accidents remain very rare, and one major incident can suddenly turn a statistically safe year into one of the worst.

“The recent spike falls into the margins of unpredictability,” said Darren Straker, a former head of air accident investigation units in the United Arab Emirates and Hong Kong. He suggested airline crews could be better trained to respond to so-called outlier events.

Investigators have yet to determine why a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 — a predecessor to the Max — careered down the runway at Muan International Airport early Sunday with no landing gear deployed and smashed into a concrete wall. All but two of the 181 people on board died as the wrecked jet exploded into a ball of fire.

After another Jeju plane experienced a landing-gear issue, Korean authorities on December 30 ordered maintenance record checks of 101 other 737-800s in operation among local airlines. Boeing shares fell 1.8% as of 1:08 p.m. December 30 in New York, bringing their 2024 decline to 32%.

The wider inspections came as investigators started to analyze the cockpit voice recorder and the damaged flight data device, which hold crucial clues into the movements of the jet and the actions and state of the pilots.In January 2024, a huge Japan Airlines Co. jet collided with a coastguard plane at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport. Everyone aboard the commercial jetliner survived, but five people on the smaller aircraft were killed. 

The year was also marred by a fatal case of severe turbulence in May on a Singapore Airlines Ltd. jet flying over Myanmar. In July, Nepal’s Saurya Airlines crashed after taking off from Kathmandu, killing 18. And in August dramatic footage of a plane operated by Brazilian airline VoePass captured the turboprop freefalling from the sky after encountering icy weather conditions. That accident killed 62.Global conflicts may also have contributed to this year’s aviation fatalities. 

The Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer SA 190 had nearly completed a scheduled flight from the capital city of Baku to Grozny, Russia, on December 25 when it was suddenly diverted across the Caspian Sea. The damaged plane crashed about 3 kilometers (1.9 miles) from its destination of Aktau, Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan’s president has said the plane was accidentally shot down by Russia.

The spike in fatalities marks a reversal from 2023, which became the safest year ever in aviation with no fatalities among large passenger jetliners — typically planes made by Airbus SE and Boeing. The safety trend had been improving even as air traffic increased following the pandemic. 

Jeju Air’s first fatal crash also marked the worst civil air accident ever in South Korea. While the Jeju Air aircraft was almost entirely destroyed, investigators will have valuable data to work with as they reconstruct the event. The damaged flight data device may take longer to analyze than the cockpit voice recorder.

Airline safety has been improving for decades as regulators, manufacturers and carriers incorporate lessons learned to minimize accidents and improve the chances of survival when things go wrong. Fire-repelling designs on the carbon-hulled Airbus A350 involved in January’s Tokyo crash, for example, combined with near-flawless execution by the JAL crew and rescue team to allow all 379 people onboard to survive.

It’s best to look at aviation safety over decade-long periods, said Jan-Arwed Richter, an aviation safety consultant who runs the Jacdec research site in Hamburg, Germany. 

“I’m pretty confident that 2024 may be regarded as an outlier in years to come,” he said.